Obama versus Reagan

We're Iowans

Where The Country Is Going Politically

 I've known for quite some time that the proportion of undeclared (independent) voters in the US has been growing.  But until this 2012 Pew Research study came out, I had not given a lot of thought to what that really means.

Looking at this first graph,  it is certainly true that the percentage of independent voters has grown in the last 22 years - going from 29% to 38% of the registered voters.  This has mostly come at the expense of the Republican Party, which dropped from 31% to 24% in the same time period.

On the surface, this would seem to imply that the country is becoming less conservative and, by extension, more liberal.  But is that true?  The second part of that graph casts some doubt on the theory that the country has become much more liberal.  Let's take a deeper look.

 By Race.  Whites for the most part have not shifted much in the last 22 years.  4% fewer are Democratic and 3% fewer are Republican,  but  that only accounts for about half the shift away from the parties.  Black Democratic registration actually went up 5% during that period and Black Republican registration dipped 2%.  Similar to whites,  Hispanics had 3% fewer Democrats and 4% fewer Republicans.

 By Gender.  Male Democratic registration dropped by 2% in 22 years, while male Republican registration dropped by 8%.  Female Democratic registration held steady,  while female Republican registration dropped 5%.   This demonstrates that mostly males have made the trek to the Independent side, though apparently some Republican females have also.

 Whites.  White males in particular have become independent, as this graph shows.

 Religion.  Over the last 22 years, white Evangelical Christians have become 8% more Republican and 8% less Democratic.White non-Evangelical Christians have changed little over the same period.

Those unaffiliated with a religion have become 6% less Republican and 2% more Democratic.

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 Age.  The oldest generation has not changed their party affiliation much in the last 22 years while Boomers have become 3% more Democratic and 4% less Republican.

Gen X has become 8% less Republican and 4% more Democratic.

Millenials have become 7% less Republican and 4% more Democratic.

 Ideology.  So what does it all mean?  Is the country becoming more liberal?  Maybe slightly, but not by much as this graph shows.  The percent of voters who call themselves conservative over the last 12 years is about the same, as are the percent of moderates.  The percent who call themselves liberal has went up 4%,  but that came out of the unlabeled group, not the moderate or conservatives.

 Sliced another way, it looks like the number of moderates has increased slightly, the number of ultra liberals have increased slightly, but the ultra conservatives has remained pretty steady.

In other words,  these graphs taken collectively appear to show that people are leaving the Democratic and Republican parties, but not changing their political views all that much.

The Day the World Cheered

Sorry I have been away from blogging for so long - life got busy and I became very enamored with an election for the first time ever. I became very emotionally attached to two ballot items, one of which was the Presidential race.

For my entire adult life, there has never been a Presidential candidate that I could really, really identify with. I'm an Independent but have always leaned Democratic due to the Republican stance on social issues. But even the Democratic candidates have never quite hit the spot. In fact, I left the Presidential checkbox blank in 2000 and 2004.

But this time, this time was different. Barack's demeanor, thoughtfulness, and position on a vast majority of issues is identical to mine. I understand exactly where he is coming from and I could not help but get excited each time I heard him speak - his thought process and way of framing issues matches my thinking quite often.

And to have him be non-lilly-white (I won't call him black because he is as much white as he is black), well that is just icing on the cake. I refuse to accept that only wavy haired rich old white men know how to lead the United States.

Going into this election, I actually thought quite highly of John McCain also. I had the impression that he did what he thought was right, whether it towed the party line or not. I have a great deal of respect for someone like that. But starting in August, McCain changed. He became very partisan and veered extremely far right to solidify his base. In the process, he alienated many Independents like myself. The clincher though was the selection of Sarah Palin for his VP candidate. As the weeks rolled by, it became more and more apparent that he had put his candidacy first, not the country as he claimed.

Apparently much of the country, and the world, thought like I did. I had anticipated support from abroad, but I was not prepared for the rousing cheer that arose around the world on Wednesday morning. It was thrilling to hear! I actually heard reports of French citizens saying "we all wish we were Americans today", and people elsewhere in the world saying things like "everyone in the world should be able to vote in the US election because it affects us, too", and "Obama isn't President of the US, he's President of the World now!". Yes indeed, Obamamania had caught fire around the globe.

And I'm glad. I'm extremely proud of Americans today for they most definitely picked the best candidate, irrespective of his race. Obama was head and shoulders above his opponent. And I can't wait to see him in the White House.

In my 20s, I studied Pearl Harbor, The Great Depression, and World War II a great deal out of curiosity. I was intrigued by the intensity of the situations that America found itself in, and the high stakes that were involved. I imagined the world crying and cheering at the appropriate times. But now I have had the opportunity to see the world cry (9/11/2001) and to see the world cheer (11/4/2008) with my own eyes. I don't think much about the 1930s and 40s any more.

There is much debate going on right now about whether this is clearly a date when the United States changed, when the US entered a new era. In some ways, it definitely has changed. And with the elections of 2006 and 2008, there is some evidence that we are entering a new era. But it will take time to determine exactly how big of a change we are undergoing. Time will tell. For sure.

(Soon, I will create a post on the other issue that held my attention this election then I will return this blog to being a politics-free zone.)