Like me, I bet a lot of you are wondering how long this Coronavirus COVID-19 thing will last, given that most schools and businesses closed starting Monday March 16th.
The closest equivalent to COVID-19 in US history is the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic. I read through the 1918 San Diego newspapers to see how long the flu impacted San Diego a hundred years ago.
In 1918, World War I was raging in Europe. The United States had drafted 2.8 million men for the war, and by the summer of 1918 the US was sending 10,000 men per day to France.
With so many troops in such close quarters, an influenza epidemic broke out. It reportedly broke out in Spain because, at the time, other countries had news blackouts but Spain did not. This made it appear to the public that the flu started in Spain so it became known as the Spanish Flu.
With troops being transported between the United States and Europe, the flu soon spread to the United States. The first case in San Diego was reported on September 26, 1918 at Camp Kearny. The Army was severely impacted by the Spanish Flu.
For those not from San Diego, here are some of the terms I use in the tables that follow:
- “San Diego” mean San Diego proper, which only existed by San Diego Bay in 1918
- “Camp Kearny” was an Army camp up on a mesa (Kearny Mesa) about 10 miles from San Diego in 1918
- “Fort Rosecrans” was adjacent to San Diego, on the edge of San Diego Bay
- "National City" is a town just south of San Diego
- "Ramona" is a city east of San Diego, where the land becomes more rugged leading to the "Mountain Empire"
- "Escondido" is a city about 50 miles north of San Diego, 15-20 miles inland from the coast.
This presentation gives a synopsis on how the Spanish Flu affected San Diego in 1918. There was a second strain that circulated in the United States during 1919-1920, but this post focuses only on the 1918 epidemic.
By the time the 1918 Spanish Flu ended, it had killed 0.5% of the San Diego population.
Camp Kearny had a 2% Spanish Flu death rate.
The first case of the Spanish Flu in San Diego was reported in the September 27th San Diego newspaper. An Army solder at Camp Kearny had it.
On October 10th, the Army quarantined Camp Kearny.
A day later, the city of San Diego placed restrictions on public gatherings.
By early November, the number of new cases in San Diego began decreasing. Thought was given to removing the Camp Kearny quarantine and San Diego gathering restrictions.
In fact, the Camp Kearny gave partial liberty on November 10th. Since the war ended on November 11th, it appears this was done to allow the troops to celebrate the end of the war in San Diego, not in camp.
In fact, the San Diego board of health recommended re-implementing restrictions. Some San Diego businesses were unhappy with that recommendation and actually ignored it.
The city, the local board of health, and the state health board all struggled with ways to gain control over the Spanish Flu again.
The city council implemented a full quarantine for San Diego for 4 days, then replaced it with the mandatory wearing of masks.
The newspapers from Jan, Feb, and March 1919 are missing so I cannot tell if there was a relapse during that period, but there does not appear there was. Later in 1919, a new strain went through the United States.
So there you have it. If COVID-19 is anything like the 1918 Spanish Flu, we could be looking at 4-6 weeks of closures followed by a month of masks. We shall see what happens.
